Eastern Mediterranean: Energy, Sovereignty, and Naval Competition

The Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as a zone of intense geopolitical competition driven by energy discoveries, maritime boundary disputes, and the overlapping interests of regional and global powers. Gas fields discovered off the coasts of Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and potentially Lebanon and Turkey have transformed the region's strategic calculus.

Turkiye's assertion of expansive maritime claims, embodied in the Blue Homeland doctrine, has brought it into conflict with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. Naval confrontations between Turkish and Greek warships, disputes over Aegean airspace, and competing claims to continental shelf resources have made this one of NATO's most contentious internal fault lines. Turkiye maintains a military presence in northern Cyprus and has developed the largest navy in the eastern Mediterranean.

Greece has responded with a major military modernization program, including the acquisition of Rafale fighters from France, frigates from the Franco-Italian Naval Group, and a defense cooperation agreement with the United States that includes access to Greek military facilities. Egypt has similarly expanded its naval capabilities with French-built Mistral amphibious assault ships and FREMM frigates, becoming a significant maritime power.

The energy dimension adds economic complexity to the strategic competition. The EastMed pipeline project, intended to carry gas from Israeli and Cypriot waters to Europe, has been complicated by Turkiye's insistence on participation and its opposition to bypassing Turkish territory. The Abraham Accords have facilitated Israeli-Emirati and Israeli-Egyptian energy cooperation, creating new economic links but also new points of potential friction.