African Security: Coups, Insurgencies, and Great Power Competition

Africa has become a new arena for great power competition as traditional Western influence recedes and Russia, China, and Turkiye expand their security footprints. A wave of military coups in the Sahel region, persistent jihadist insurgencies, and resource-driven conflicts create a complex security landscape that defies simple categorization.

The Sahel has been particularly volatile. Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French troops and invited Russian military personnel and Wagner Group mercenaries. These security partnerships have yielded mixed results: while they provide regime protection, they have not demonstrably reduced insurgent violence from groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The withdrawal of French Operation Barkhane forces and MINUSMA peacekeepers has created security vacuums that insurgents exploit.

China's engagement with Africa is primarily economic but has growing security dimensions. China operates its first overseas military base in Djibouti, sells weapons to numerous African nations, and conducts joint military exercises with several partners. Chinese investment in ports, railways, and digital infrastructure across the continent creates long-term strategic dependencies. Turkey has emerged as a significant player, establishing a military base in Somalia and becoming a major arms exporter to African nations.

Sub-Saharan Africa's security challenges extend beyond great power competition. The conflict in Sudan has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Ethiopia's Tigray conflict demonstrated the devastating potential of civil war in Africa's second-most populous nation. Militant groups in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria threaten stability and development. The AU's Peace and Security Architecture, while ambitious, remains under-resourced and often unable to deploy forces quickly enough to prevent escalation.