The Caucasus: Where Empires, Energy, and Ethnic Conflicts Converge

The South Caucasus, encompassing Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, sits at the crossroads of Russian, Turkish, and Iranian spheres of influence. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and its aftermath have fundamentally reshaped the region's balance of power, with implications extending far beyond the immediate conflict zone.

Azerbaijan's decisive military victory in 2020, enabled in large part by Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli-supplied loitering munitions, demonstrated how advanced technology can overcome entrenched defenses. Azerbaijan's subsequent operations in 2023 to reassert control over the remaining Armenian-populated areas of Karabakh completed Baku's territorial objectives, displacing the entire Armenian population of the region.

The geopolitical realignment has been dramatic. Turkey has established itself as Azerbaijan's primary security partner, with Turkish military bases and defense cooperation deepening. Russia's peacekeeping role has been diminished, a notable humiliation for Moscow, which has historically been the region's primary security guarantor. Armenia, feeling abandoned by its Russian alliance partner, has begun diversifying its security relationships toward France, India, and the European Union.

Energy infrastructure makes the region strategically vital. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor provide routes for Caspian energy to reach European and global markets, bypassing both Russia and Iran. Georgia's position as a transit corridor gives it geopolitical significance far exceeding its military capability. The frozen conflict in Georgia's South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions, backed by Russian military presence, adds another layer of instability to this complex neighborhood.