Iran: Prolonged conflict reshapes view of the regime, analyst says

A FRANCE 24 guest argues that sustained hostilities recalibrate Tehran’s domestic legitimacy while preserving its external leverage. He identifies three core pillars—sanctions, the nuclear program, and Hormuz control—that the regime can rely on to withstand pressure. The assessment also notes a tightening grip on society as the conflict persists, potentially softening domestic opposition over time.

Iran’s strategy toward the United States, as laid out by Mehran Kamrave, centers on three hard levers the regime can deploy in a protracted confrontation: sanctions, the nuclear programme, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. He contends that the regime will lean on these levers to sustain its bargaining position even as military tensions persist. Kamrave describes a calculus in which economic pressure, nuclear ambiguity, and maritime chokepoint dominance form a triad that keeps Tehran in play on the global stage. The longer the crisis drags on, the more the regime seeks to reframe the domestic narrative around resilience and sovereignty.