High fertiliser prices drive more soybeans and China dependency

Global fertiliser costs are reshaping crop choices. Farmers shift toward soybeans to offset input bills, while imports from China become more crucial to feed supplies. The Russia-Ukraine war’s fertiliser shocks continue to ripple across agriculture and trade policy.

The core development is blunt: fertiliser prices have surged, pushing farmers to rethink what they plant. In upstate New York, a dairy farmer who grows much of his own cattle feed abandoned corn in 2022 when input costs spiked. The decision reflected a wider farm-level recalibration as fertiliser bills outpaced expected returns. The price spike traces back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted exports of nitrogen, urea, and other key nutrients, globalising the agricultural input supply shock. Belarus, a long-standing ally of Russia, stands among the world’s leading fertiliser suppliers, complicating global availability and price stability. As 2022 gave way to a protracted conflict in Ukraine, farmers worldwide faced a volatile market that forced difficult crop-dollar tradeoffs. A separate conflict involving the US further complicates the policy and security environment, though details remain unresolved in the briefing. The combined pressures underscore how intertwined food production, energy markets, and geopolitics have become in the modern agricultural economy.