Fertiliser Price Surge Empowers China’s Global Influence
The US-Israel conflict has disrupted Persian Gulf fertiliser exports, elevating food price risks. China, as the top fertiliser producer, may leverage this to increase political influence amid regional disputes. Analysts see limited chances China will weaponize exports despite growing strategic clout.
The ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran has severely disrupted fertiliser exports from the Persian Gulf region. Iran’s effective blockade of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz has led to significant disruptions in global supply chains for fertilisers, critical for worldwide agricultural production. This has caused a sharp spike in global fertiliser prices, raising alarm over potential food price inflation if hostilities persist.
China is the world’s largest producer of fertilisers and stands to gain increased political leverage in this crisis environment. Many countries currently engaged in territorial or economic disputes with Beijing are heavily dependent on fertiliser imports. China could exploit their urgent needs to strengthen its diplomatic and economic influence, although analysts caution that outright weaponization of fertiliser exports by Beijing remains unlikely.
Strategically, the supply chain disruption creates new power dynamics in global agriculture inputs. Control over fertiliser availability is increasingly merging with geopolitical contests, as shortages risk inflaming food insecurity in vulnerable regions. China’s dominating fertiliser role amplifies its capacity to sway nations reliant on these supplies, thereby shifting global influence balances.
On the operational level, the Persian Gulf is crucial for 20-30% of the world’s fertiliser export volume, passing through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Many fertilisers, including nitrogenous and phosphate-based types, depend on seamless logistics from Gulf producers. The blockade and conflict disruptions have pushed prices up by over 25% in the last quarter, triggering urgent searches for alternative sources.
Looking forward, if the US-Israel-Iran conflict continues unresolved, fertiliser supply instability could deepen global food crises and accelerate Beijing’s political maneuvering. International actors must brace for intensified competition over fertiliser access as a new frontline in geopolitical rivalries, with China possibly exercising strengthened soft power over import-dependent countries.