ASEAN Warned: Exploiting US-China Rivalry Risks Regional Crisis

A top Chinese analyst warns Southeast Asian states against leveraging US-China tensions for immediate gains, highlighting risks of regional instability amid South China Sea disputes. Misreading the great power rivalry could escalate conflicts and undermine ASEAN cohesion.

A leading Chinese political scientist has issued a stark warning to ASEAN countries not to exploit the escalating tensions between China and the United States for short-term benefits. Zheng Yongnian, dean of public policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, spoke during the Boao Forum for Asia, emphasizing the dangers inherent in such a strategy.

The context is the South China Sea sovereignty disputes where overlapping claims exacerbate regional tensions. Zheng stressed that how countries perceive and respond to the China-US rivalry will be the determining factor in either aggravating or stabilizing the situation.

Strategically, ASEAN is caught between two major powers whose competition reshapes regional security dynamics. Exploiting this rivalry risks fracturing ASEAN unity, triggering stronger military postures, and potentially drawing smaller states into a proxy conflict.

Technically, the South China Sea is increasingly militarized. Both China and the United States have ramped up naval patrols, surveillance, and freedom of navigation operations. ASEAN states have varying defense capacities, complicating joint security efforts.

Looking forward, ASEAN must navigate a delicate balance to avoid becoming a battleground for great power rivalry. Failure to do so risks escalating conflict in one of the world’s most crucial maritime chokepoints, threatening broader Indo-Pacific stability.